Stop Panicking About Falling Birth Rates
If we want a healthy planet, we must embrace a smaller human population.
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The problem is not that birth rates are falling.
The problem is they have grown too high.
Recently, I watched a 2022 video by an American think tank.
In it, two men were discussing the “fateful turn” that US birth trends — which are falling — had taken. This was, one stated, “ominous.”
In the video, there was much discussion about the economic impact and some dubious opinions aired about ‘selfish’ younger generations.
There wasn’t, however, a single mention of how global population size impacts climate change except in a throwaway comment about how younger generations “fear that the planet is doomed.”
Let’s stop and pause on that comment.
We know that climate change is caused by humans.
There is growing consensus that it is accelerating.
And we are seeing the impact of that in all kinds of ways – from wildfires in Australia to flooding in Dubai and freak weather events all over the world.
Yet somehow, this sobering reality had not filtered into the conversation.
These two men were still baffled by what could possibly be motivating younger Americans to veer away from having large numbers of children.
One of the reasons, if they cared to look, was staring them right in the face.
Eat, sleep, pollute, repeat
We have a population problem on this planet.
It took us 250,000 years to reach 1 billion people. It then took us just 200 years to reach 7 billion people.
We are now over 8 billion strong and counting.
What does that mean?
It means we’re destroying other animals’ habitats and killing them off in heartbreaking numbers. Humans and the domestic animals we rear for consumption now comprise 96% of all mammal biomass.
It means we’re pumping huge quantities of CO2 into our atmosphere. This is changing our climate to such an extent that natural disasters are set to become more frequent.
It means we’re creating a refugee crisis as parts of our world become less habitable due to rising sea levels.
In Bangladesh, my father’s birth country, 1 in 7 people will be forced to migrate by 2050 due to flooding.
It means we’re putting pressure on finite resources. For example, our hunger for minerals needed to manufacture renewable and countless other technologies is so great that NASA is planning to mine the moon, turning us into a generation of interplanetary plunderers.
And it means we’re torpedoing children’s mental health. In 2023, a third of young people in the UK admitted to feeling scared, sad, pessimistic or overwhelmed about climate change.
Panic about birth rates going down?
Are you serious?!
It’s not enough to just consume less
Many people say we just need to consume less.
And they are right.
We must all make tough choices to reduce our carbon footprint, particularly those of us with higher-emission lifestyles.
But it’s not enough.
Because we would need societies across the world to transform beyond all recognition to sustain all of us to a semi-decent standard of living.
And realistically, that’s very unlikely to happen.
That’s why it’s such a good thing that birth rates have been decreasing naturally through higher levels of education for women and couples choosing to have fewer or no children.
And it’s a good thing that trend is set to continue.
Because even if birth rates drop to one child per couple and we have a widespread loss of life due to global events like wars (please, no) the global population is still expected to be between 5 and 10 billion by 2100. Which still might not be sustainable.
The rise of childfree and childless people and the work they are doing to craft new ways of living in the world that don’t centre on the nuclear family is a positive trend for our planet.
Instead of discriminating against them by asking them to take on more in the workplace or acting rudely towards them, we should be celebrating them and finding ways to help them flourish in our societies, too.
As Sir David Attenborough, patron of Population Matters, says:
All our environmental problems become easier to solve with fewer people, and harder — and ultimately impossible — to solve with ever more people.
A small but perfectly formed population
Many of the discussions I see about falling birth rates tend to focus on how we mitigate any negative impacts of population decline on economic growth.
This is important, of course.
But there are potentially lots of unexpected benefits too.
Raising children well is important for a well-functioning society. It is also time-consuming.
In 2015, UK mothers spent an average of two hours and 40 minutes caring for their children every day and fathers spent an average of one hour and ten minutes.
Fewer people having children, or people having fewer children, means we can free up more time to solve the many problems we face.
From climate education to adaptation to developing novel technologies, right now, we need every ounce of energy, time, compassion and creativity we can get.
There are plenty of examples of childless people who have helped shape our world throughout history to inspire us.
From philosopher Plato to spiritual leader Mother Teresa to economist Dambisa Moyo and politician George Washington, our history is littered with people with no children who have devoted their lives to other causes.
In today’s fractious world, we need more of them.
There is also evidence that people without children support our societies in other ways. For example, as this piece for The Economist about Americans without children notes:
In 2014, 48% of married childless people aged at least 55 who had written wills committed to giving something to charity. That was true of only 12% of parents and a mere 8% of grandparents.
Or as this paper shows, people without children are more likely to care for their ageing parents.
What a wonderful prospect — a society overflowing with people who have the time, love and money to gift to others.
And let’s not forget all the benefits for the children we do have.
Many people will attest to the wonderful experience of having a devoted step-parent, uncle, aunt, god-parent or older family friend in their lives.
More people without children simply means more people to love the precious children we do have.
The best legacy is a healthy planet
This doesn’t mean people should stop having children or limit the size of their families.
Children are our future as well as incubators of joy. Their innate happiness and enthusiasm are infectious.
People who have children typically love those children deeply and often feel they are their greatest achievement.
I myself have nieces and children of friends that I love fiercely and I feel so grateful to have them in my life.
But if we care about children as much as we say we do then we need to face up to reality.
The issue isn’t that birth rates are too low. It’s that they have grown too high.
Which is why it’s so heartening to see them coming down in many parts of the world.
So ignore the doom-mongers.
A smaller population will help us shift our relationship with the planet from one that’s extractive and harmful to one that’s mutually reinforcing and harmonious.
What’s a more optimistic picture — billions of people fighting for resources in a ravaged world or a smaller population in a less polluted, greener, healthier one?
There’s no question.
The choice before us is stark.
And the time to act is now.
For information on how you can help combat climate change, visit the UN’s website.
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Thank you for pointing this out- I had the same reaction when we hit 6 billion. This is unsustainable. Our planet cannot support a population that size with the way we consume resources. The examples of related consequences was excellent. Really great piece.
Unfortunately, our societies are geared around capitalism which can’t do without more and more and more and more. I totally subscribe to what you’re saying, however.. I hope people wake up!